Influence of Representative Models in the Expected Value of InformationApplied to Petroleum Fields Development

Influence of Representative Models in the Expected Value of InformationApplied to Petroleum Fields Development

Risk analysis

Risk assessment

Gasoline

Uncertainty analysis

Oil field development

Petroleum reservoirs

Petroleum geology

Risk perception

Petroleum reservoir evaluation

Frequency modulation

The Expected Value of Information (EVoI) is a criterion to analyze the feasibility of acquiring newinformation to deal with uncertainties and improve decisions at any stage of an oil field. Here, we evaluatethe influence of the use of representative models (RM) on the EVoI estimation and on the decision to developthe petroleum field. These RM are used to represent a large set of models that honor production data (FM),considering uncertainties in reservoir, fluid and economic parameters, enabling the following processes: (1)optimize production strategies (specialized for each RM and robust to all RM), (2) risk analysis, (3) selectthe strategy to develop the field based on risk analysis, and (4) estimate the EVoI. We evaluated the influenceof the number of RM on these processes, observing the impacts on the results of reducing computationalcosts. For the EVoI, we applied a Complete (EVoI-FM) and a Simplified (EVoI-RM) methodology, whereEVoI-FM was evaluated with all models (FM) while EVoI-RM used different groups with different numbersof RM (GR1, GR2 and GR3, ranging from 9 to 150 models in each group). To assess the quality of theresults, we used the complete estimate (EVoI-FM) as a reference. The study was conducted on UNISIM-I-D, a benchmark oil reservoir in the development phase, taking an appraisal well as a source of informationto clarify a structural uncertainty. Using RM to optimize specialized production strategies proved useful,since optimizing strategies for all FM would require high computational costs. Moreover, the RM could beused to represent risk curves and select production strategies under uncertainty, but less precisely, affectingdirectly the results of the EVoI (which is the difference between the expected values of the two curves). Theprecision of EVoI-RM results varied according to the number and group of RM employed, also varying thebest strategies selected for field development. The choice of using simplifications or not will depend on theaccuracy required or available resources. Variations in EVoI-RM may be tolerable when compared to thetime saved, being the decision maker free for choosing the best estimation method. 2020 Society of Petroleum Engineers. All rights reserved.

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2020

Dos Santos, Leticia Siqueira

Da Graca Santos, Susana Margarida

De Souza Dos Santos, Antonio Alberto

Schiozer, Denis Jose

Da Silva, Luis Otavio Mendes

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