Network theory-based accident scenario analysis for hazardous material transport: A case study of liquefied petroleum gas transport in Japan

Network theory-based accident scenario analysis for hazardous material transport: A case study of liquefied petroleum gas transport in Japan

Accident network

Complex accident process

Risk assessment

Risk management

Transport environmental factor

ABSTRACT To analyze an accident scenario involving the transport of hazardous material (HAZMAT), a complex accident process must be completely described

however, existing analytical approaches, which are influenced by the arbitrariness of a given analyst, may not cover the entire process. Thus, the aim of this study is to develop a new approach for analyzing accident scenarios associated with HAZMAT transport, using network theory as a key to illustrate the complex accident process. In the developed approach, accident scenarios are sampled from the accident processes by fusing the HAZMAT transport accident network and transport environmental factors, based on accident data. The proposed approach was applied to a case of Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) transport by road in Japan. The case study identified 68,874 scenarios and classified the identified scenarios into three types of risk categories: 80 high-risk, 9,112 medium-risk, and 59,682 low-risk scenarios. It was observed that the scenarios identified could successfully help understand the complex accident processes in HAZMAT transport and incorporate the safety measures through the accident network. The proposed approach for accident scenario analysis can accelerate the risk assessment of HAZMAT transport and help advance risk assessment to risk management.

107107

203

Noguchi, H.

Hienuki, S.

Fuse, M.

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

2020

journalArticle

0951-8320

10.1016/j.ress.2020.107107

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020306086