Agriculture and forest land use change in the continental United States: Are there tipping points?

Agriculture and forest land use change in the continental United States: Are there tipping points?

agricultural economics

agricultural science

earth sciences

land use

Summary Land use in the United States (US) is driven by multiple forces operating at the global level, such as income and population growth, yield and productivity improvement, trade policy, climate change, and changing diets. Future land use has implications for biodiversity, run-off, carbon storage, ecosystem values, agriculture, and the broader economy. We investigate those forces and their implications from a multisector, multisystem dynamics (MSD) perspective focused on understanding dynamics and resilience in complex interdependent systems. Historical trends show slight increases in grassland and natural forest areas and decreases in cropland. We project these trends to intensify under higher pressures for agriculture land and reduce under lower pressures, with no evidence of tipping points toward larger agricultural land abandonment or deforestation. However, US sectoral output and trade, fertilizer use, N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture activities, and CO2 emissions from land use changes are substantially impacted under land use forcing scenarios.

iScience

2021

2021-07-23

Gurgel, Angelo C.

Reilly, John

Blanc, Elodie

journalArticle

2589-0042

10.1016/j.isci.2021.102772

24

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004221007409