Estimate the daily consumption of natural gas in district heating system based on a hybrid seasonal decomposition and temporal convolutional network model
Title
Estimate the daily consumption of natural gas in district heating system based on a hybrid seasonal decomposition and temporal convolutional network model
Subject
Natural gas
Forecasting
Pipelines
Regression analysis
Support vector machines
Convolution
Convolutional neural networks
Gases
Recurrent neural networks
District heating
Heating equipment
District heating system
Natural gas consumption prediction
Seasonal decomposition
Temporal convolutional network
Adaptive boosting
Description
In recent years, natural gas was widely used as a primary clean energy source to replace coal-fired in northern cities in China, whose objective is to reduce the severe environmental pollution caused by coal-fired central heating in winter. The rapid growth of natural gas consumption has brought a significant burden for natural gas production and transportation, affecting residents' regular heating demand. Therefore, accurately predicting natural gas consumption is of great significance to the district heating system (DHS). However, accurately predicting natural gas consumption is challenging due to the complex nonlinear time-varying feature for the large-scale DHS system. A novel hybrid model was proposed to predict the daily natural gas consumption in the DHS based on the seasonal decomposition and temporal convolution network (SDTCN) in this paper, under the principle of Divide and Conquers strategy and deep learning algorithm. The seasonal decomposition of the natural gas consumption produces three distinct subsequences: the trend item, the seasonal item, and the residual item. The spatiotemporal features of these three subsequences are then modeled and predicted based on the TCN model, combining the advantages of recurrent neural networks (RNN) and convolution neural network (CNN) characteristics. Besides, we compare the two SDTCN models with state-of-the-art algorithms, such as support vector machine (SVM), Adaboost, extreme tree regression (ETR), passive-aggressive regression (PassAgg), nu support vector regression (NuSVR), and bootstrap aggregating (Bagging). The experimental results show that the proposed SDTCN model is superior to other algorithms, and the prediction accuracy can reach 94.4%.
118444
309
Publisher
Applied Energy
Date
2022
Contributor
Song, Jiancai
Zhang, Liyi
Jiang, Qingling
Ma, Yunpeng
Zhang, Xinxin
Xue, Guixiang
Shen, Xingliang
Wu, Xiangdong
Type
journalArticle
Identifier
0306-2619
10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118444
URL
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192101669X
Collection
Citation
“Estimate the daily consumption of natural gas in district heating system based on a hybrid seasonal decomposition and temporal convolutional network model,” Lamar University Midstream Center Research, accessed May 18, 2024, https://lumc.omeka.net/items/show/26159.